When you are walking into town it starts raining and your friend says: ‘I knew it was going to rain today’. Your friend replies: ‘No, it’s not going to rain today’. You and your friend are leaving to walk into town, before you leave you ask your friend if you should take an umbrella. This one of the many examples of hindsight bias that we unwittingly encounter every day.Ī further example of hindsight bias. This is a clear example of hindsight bias, your friend said heads before the coin flip and claimed they knew it was going to be tails after the event. You say to your friend that you are going to flip the coin and if they can accurately guess what side the coin will land on you will buy them a pizza. To give an example of this hindsight bias: Imagine you have a coin with two sides, one is heads and one is tails. If she did, then she wouldn’t have entered into a relationship with this person.Īnother example of hindsight bias is when people are wrong about the outcome of an event, but claim they knew it was going to go the opposite way to which they originally stated. Since the song is about someone she has a relationship with we can inter that she did not think this person was trouble or that see ‘knew… that this would happen’. Taylor Swift may have been experiencing the Hindsight Bias when see wrote the lyrics: ‘I knew you were trouble when you walked in’ and ‘I think part of me knew the second I saw him that this would happen’. Was Taylor Swift experiencing the Hindsight Bias? Examples of Hindsight Bias Part of Fischhoff’s discovery of hindsight bias came from a study he conducted wherein participants were questioned about the likelihood of various events, after the events happened participants were requestioned about their original predictions. The hindsight bias was first reported by the American psychologist Baruch Fischhoff in 1975. Hindsight Bias is also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism. This is most produced when the event could not possibly have been predicted. When they could have only known the outcome of the event in hindsight. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.Ĭounterfactual debias hindsight bias metacognition overconfidence “knew-it-all-along” effect.A flawed heuristic, in which after an event an individual or group claims that they knew outcome of the event along. Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known.
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